But she hasn’t been able to sustain those leads. After vaulting to second place in a CNN/ORC poll taken right after the most recent debate last month, she now sits in sixth in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Mentions of her campaign in the media have also dropped precipitously in the last three weeks, from a high of 397 right after the Sept. 16 debate to a mere 21 on Oct. 24, according to tallies compiled by The Atlantic.
At the same time, the top two candidates in the polls — the other two political outsiders, New York businessman Donald Trump and retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson — have consistently stayed atop the polls since mid-August, according to running averages compiled by RealClearPolitics.
There’s a certain number of Republicans attracted to outsiders, and she’s competing against the two front-runners,” said Dianne Bystrom, director of the Center for Women in Politics at Iowa State University. “She’s competing for those voters. It’s kind of tough to carve into that space.”
Fiorina was widely considered the winner of the undercard debate in Cleveland on Aug. 6 and saw a big enough surge in the polls that she qualified for the main stage at the second GOP debate on Sept. 16 at the Reagan Library in California. At that debate, she took on Donald Trump for statements he made about her looks, as well as Planned Parenthood.
We are very pleased with where the campaign is, and we look forward to the opportunity for Carly to introduce herself to even more voters" at the Boulder, Colo., debate said campaign spokeswoman Anna Epstein.
The only female Republican candidate also had a strong third-quarter fundraising report, raising $6.8 million, behind only Carson with $20.8 million, former Florida governor Jeb Bush with $13.4 million and Cruz with $12.2 million.
One of the realities of her campaign is that she doesn’t have the massive infrastructure that some of the other candidates have to capitalize on her successes in both of the debates,” said Lara Brown, an associate professor of Political Management at George Washington University and one of the lead researchers on the Peoria project, which is tracking how candidates’ messages are resonating both in traditional and social media.
“Her first financial reporting period, she raised less than $2 million, but now her campaign is building out. There is a reality that if you don’t have that organization in place, it becomes hard to maximize on any media moment.”
It’s too soon to count Fiorina out of the race, Bystrom said
“She’s still doing OK. But she has to have another strong debate performance,” she said. “Of all the people on the stage, she has the some of the best debating skills. She’s able to answer questions and keep her answers concise and she’s willing to attack the others on the stage.”
And she can eat into the leads enjoyed by the front-runners. “Neither Trump nor Carson have great debating skills. Trump is too bombastic and Carson is too nice,” Bystrom said.
Fiorina also has to make people believe that she can be president, Gonzales said.
“She can deliver the one-liners, and is quick on her feet, but I don’t think she’s crossed the threshold yet of people being able to envision her as the next president,” he said.
